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Will James Wynn be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will James Wynn be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering a 2202% implied yield versus just 9% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of the appearance probability or minimal trader interest in establishing positions.

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13¢
Bid/Ask 6/12¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $79·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining
KXUPONLY-01-JAME

Analysis

14d ago

This micro-liquidity market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering a 2202% implied yield versus just 9% for No, suggesting severe underpricing of the appearance probability or minimal trader interest in establishing positions. The $79 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate this contract is essentially illiquid, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. With 260 days to expiry and a wide 6¢ spread, this appears to be a niche prediction with insufficient market depth to warrant serious capital allocation.

Resolution rules

If James Wynn is on the UpOnly Podcast before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2334.5%
IY (No) 9.5%
Adj IY 1167%
CRI 16
Overround 0.5%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2334.5%
IY (No)9.5%
Adj IY1167%
CRI16
Overround0.5%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
6¢
Computed
5/1/2026, 4:12:43 PM
Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 4:08:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXUPONLY-01-JAME yes 100

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