Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $100k open interest, suggesting trapped positions or stale pricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $100k open interest, suggesting trapped positions or stale pricing. The 9¢ price implies only a 9% chance Vance becomes the 2028 Republican VP nominee, which appears disconnected from his current position as sitting Vice President—the asymmetric 611% implied yield on Yes versus 2.5% on No suggests the market may be mispriced or reflects genuine uncertainty about his political viability by 2028. With 936 days to expiration and a recent 7-point price decline (from 7¢ to 6¢), the wide 3¢ spread and elevated cliff risk index of 16 indicate structural concerns about market depth and potential for sharp repricing.
Resolution rules
If J.D. Vance accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMR-28-JDV yes 100