Will Byron Donalds be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Byron Donalds be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market prices Byron Donalds at just 4¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,261% on the Yes side, reflecting the extremely low probability assigned to a relatively obscure candidate winning the Republican VP nomination.
Analysis
This market prices Byron Donalds at just 4¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,261% on the Yes side, reflecting the extremely low probability assigned to a relatively obscure candidate winning the Republican VP nomination. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $13,298 open interest and a 1¢ spread suggests minimal liquidity and low trader conviction, making this a speculative long-shot bet rather than an actively traded contract. With 936 days until expiration and a cliff risk index of 32, there's substantial time for political developments to shift odds, though the current pricing indicates the market views this outcome as highly unlikely.
Resolution rules
If Byron Donalds accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMR-28-BD yes 100