Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$491
7 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
884 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Donald J. Trump” vs “Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Donald J. Trump
Cluster 2
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance
KXVPRESNOMR-28-JDV
Cluster 3
Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party
Will Erika Kirk be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Erika Kirk
KXVPRESNOMR-28-EKIR
Cluster 4
Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party
Will Glenn Youngkin be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Glenn Youngkin
KXVPRESNOMR-28-GY
Cluster 5
Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party
Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Marco Rubio
KXVPRESNOMR-28-MR
Cluster 6
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party
Analysis
This contract asks whether Donald Trump would accept nomination as Vice President on a Republican ticket in 2026. At 8%, the market reflects very low probability, suggesting traders view this as unlikely given Trump's historical positioning and recent political activity. Trump's current focus appears directed toward the presidency or significant political influence, as evidenced by related contracts showing minimal trading on his own presidential nomination (3¢) and heavy activity around Trump Jr.'s presidential prospects (6¢). The main factors affecting this probability are Trump's stated intentions regarding 2026-2028 political involvement and any explicit statements about his willingness to serve in a vice-presidential role. A significant catalyst would be any official announcement from Trump clarifying his political plans or indicating support for a specific presidential candidate as the 2026 cycle progresses. Market movements would likely follow concrete statements rather than speculation, with the probability rising only if Trump explicitly endorsed or positioned himself for a VP nomination.
- ›Trump's current public statements and announcements regarding his own political role in 2026-2028
- ›Trading volume and prices on related contracts show Trump Jr. presidential prospects (6¢) vastly outweigh Trump Sr. presidential prospects (3¢), suggesting market belief in different power dynamics
- ›Historical precedent: Trump has not previously sought vice-presidential office or held subordinate executive positions
- ›Any official endorsement of a 2026-2028 Republican presidential candidate and Trump's stated relationship to that candidate
- ›The timing of Republican nominee selection processes and when candidates typically clarify their running-mate choices
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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