Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker of the House?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker of the House?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2031. This market shows extreme asymmetry between the Yes and No sides, with the Yes position offering a 190.9% implied yield versus just 2.4% for No, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk premium for a low-probability event.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry between the Yes and No sides, with the Yes position offering a 190.9% implied yield versus just 2.4% for No, suggesting significant mispricing or tail-risk premium for a low-probability event. The 13¢ price has declined from 11¢ over the past week despite the long 1,721-day timeframe, indicating weakening conviction in Jordan's prospects, though the thin $77 daily volume and $1,700 open interest raise concerns about liquidity and price reliability. The 3¢ spread and moderate Cliff Risk Index of 9 suggest this contract could experience sharp repricing around political events, making it speculative rather than a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If Jim Jordan is the first Speaker of the House after Mike Johnson, before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEXTSPEAKER-31-JJOR yes 100