Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 100¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
99¢ current
+78¢Contract brief
If Justin Murphy wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Jersey Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$37K
Identifier
KXSENATENJR-26-JMUR
Jun 5, 2026, 7:52 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
100¢
Reported volume
$37K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
Family volume
$37K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Justin Murphy wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II New Jersey Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 3, 2026
Identifier
KXSENATENJR-26-JMUR
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$37K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey 99¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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Event Probability API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.