Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 95% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
95%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+58pp
1h ago
24h volume
$31K
1 contracts
Top contract
95¢
$31K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?: Justin Murphy
KXSENATENJR-26-JMUR
Analysis
This probability reflects the current likelihood that Justin Murphy will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in New Jersey in 2026. At 37%, the market suggests Murphy is a meaningful contender but faces significant competition for the nomination. The current level reflects Murphy's existing political profile, fundraising capacity, and endorsement positioning relative to other potential Republican candidates in the state. The probability would shift based on changes in candidate entry or withdrawal from the race, fundraising disparities among competitors, and endorsements from influential state or national Republican figures. The primary election itself represents the key catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty—when New Jersey Republicans formally select their nominee, the probability will move to either near 100% if Murphy wins or near 0% if he does not. Until that event, the market is pricing in a moderately competitive nomination contest with multiple viable candidates.
- ›Murphy's current fundraising totals compared to other declared or potential Republican candidates in the race
- ›Whether major New Jersey Republican Party figures and national endorsers have committed to or publicly supported Murphy
- ›The timing and identities of other candidates entering or exiting the Republican primary before filing deadlines
- ›Public polling data among likely Republican primary voters showing Murphy's name recognition and preference levels
- ›Changes in the overall strength of the national Republican brand that could affect primary turnout and candidate viability in New Jersey
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 1d
- Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?: 27-29last 53% · 1d
- Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 53-55last 48% · 1d
- Will the White House Press Secretary say Radical Left at her next press briefinglast 15% · 2d
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 3last 50% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (95% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
California Governor Primary Shakes Up: Hilton Soars, Steyer Crashes
Steve Hilton's probability to advance to the California governor runoff jumped 35¢ to 89¢ after a new poll showed him in second place, while Tom Steyer collapsed 38¢ to 10¢. The runoff now looks likely to be between Becerra and Hilton.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.