Karen Bass · KXLAMAYORADVANCE-26JUN02
Karen Bass is priced at 91¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 89¢ bid, 92¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside KXLAMAYORADVANCE-26JUN02.
Price history
91¢ current
Contract brief
If Karen Bass is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Karen Bass
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Karen Bass 89¢
Range
19¢-89¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXLAMAYORADVANCE-26JUN02-KBAS
May 24, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$73
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · KXLAMAYORADVANCE-26JUN02
Closes
Jun 1, 2028
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 92¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Karen Bass is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 1, 2028
Identifier
KXLAMAYORADVANCE-26JUN02-KBAS
Event family
KXLAMAYORADVANCE-26JUN02.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Karen Bass 89¢
Current share
4%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 91% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.