Will Karen Bass qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 63% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
63%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$31K
3 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2028
736 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Spencer Pratt qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election
Cluster 2
Will Karen Bass qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election
Cluster 3
Will Nithya Raman qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election
What moved the line
- May 26Karen Bass↑5pp91→96¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Karen Bass↓4pp93→89¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Nithya Raman↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Spencer Pratt↓3pp80→77¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Spencer Pratt↑3pp77→80¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Venice Mayoral Election Winnerlast 92% · 1d
- Will Greg Abbott endorse Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026last 15% · 1d
- Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 1.2–1.5Mlast 76% · 2d
- Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 0.6–0.9Mlast 76% · 2d
- Galway-West By-Election Winnerlast 97% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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