Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with the price swinging from 16¢ to 35¢ over seven days, currently settling at 26¢ with a realized volatility of 4,858% and an extraordinary implied yield of 5,844% on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with the price swinging from 16¢ to 35¢ over seven days, currently settling at 26¢ with a realized volatility of 4,858% and an extraordinary implied yield of 5,844% on the Yes side. With only 12 days until expiration and a modest $37,913 in 24-hour volume against $46,415 open interest, liquidity is relatively tight for such a binary outcome, and the 4¢ spread suggests some pricing uncertainty. The high info arrival rate of 5.3 events per hour combined with the cliff risk index of 2 indicates this market is sensitive to breaking news, making the current 26% probability potentially unstable as we approach the May 1 deadline.
Resolution rules
If Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXKASHOUT-26APR-MAY01 yes 100