Will Kayla Harrison be on the UFC 2026 White House event card?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Kayla Harrison be on the UFC 2026 White House event card?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing July 4, 2026. This market displays extreme asymmetry with a staggering 8,875% implied yield on Yes contracts at just 6¢, suggesting either severe underpricing of Harrison's inclusion odds or minimal conviction among traders given the razor-thin $1,059.72 daily volume relative to $21,112 open interest.
Analysis
This market displays extreme asymmetry with a staggering 8,875% implied yield on Yes contracts at just 6¢, suggesting either severe underpricing of Harrison's inclusion odds or minimal conviction among traders given the razor-thin $1,059.72 daily volume relative to $21,112 open interest. The 7-day price decline from 7¢ to 6¢ combined with a 3,866% realized volatility and 4.31 vol ratio indicates significant recent uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and modest 3.4/h information arrival rate suggest no major catalysts are currently driving the market. With 78 days to resolution and a 19 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet with illiquid depth that could see dramatic repricing on any UFC roster announcements.
Resolution rules
If Kayla Harrison is officially listed to compete on the UFC 2026 White House event fight card before Jul 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCARDPRESENCEUFCWH-26JUL04-KHAR yes 100