Will Conor McGregor be on the UFC 2026 White House event card
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$827
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 4, 2026
18 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kayla Harrison be on the UFC 2026 White House event card
Will Kayla Harrison be on the UFC 2026 White House event card?: Kayla Harrison
KXCARDPRESENCEUFCWH-26JUL04-KHAR
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that Conor McGregor will compete on a UFC card held at the White House before July 5, 2026, marking the U.S. bicentennial. The 4% probability suggests significant skepticism about McGregor's participation in such an event. The low odds likely reflect McGregor's recent inactivity—he hasn't fought since 2021—combined with uncertainty about whether the UFC will actually host an event at the White House. A separate contract shows 92% confidence the White House event itself will occur by July 5, 2026, indicating most uncertainty centers on McGregor specifically rather than the event's existence. McGregor's participation would require both recovery from injury, acceptance of a fight slot, and scheduling alignment with the White House event date. Resolution will depend on official UFC fight announcements and the confirmed date of any White House event.
- ›McGregor has not competed since January 2021; his current training status and willingness to fight remain unconfirmed
- ›The UFC's White House event is viewed as 92% likely to occur by July 5, 2026, but specific card composition and participant agreements are undetermined
- ›McGregor is one of multiple high-profile fighters being priced for the White House card; the market suggests significantly lower probability for his specific participation compared to fighters like Kayla Harrison (5%) and Islam Makhachev (3%)
- ›The event occurs in roughly two months (by July 5, 2026), leaving limited time for fight announcement, negotiations, and promotion of a McGregor matchup
- ›McGregor's historical bargaining power and selectivity about opponents could factor into whether UFC offers him a White House slot versus other premium events
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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