Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation above 1043.5 feet in Jun 2026
Above 1043.5 Ft is priced at 76¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 78¢ bid, 83¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 12 inside Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 104.
Price history
76¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 1043.5 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 1043.5 Ft
Rank
#6 of 12
Leader
Above 1041 Ft 93¢
Range
4¢-93¢
Family volume
$58
Identifier
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1043P5
May 28, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
78¢
Ask
83¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$8
Family rank
#6 of 12
12 outcomes · Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 104
Closes
Jul 3, 2026
Family volume
$58
Orderbook snapshot
78 / 83¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation at Hoover Dam for Jun 2026 is strictly greater than 1043.5 feet, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 3, 2026
Identifier
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1043P5
Event family
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 104.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$58
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Above 1041 Ft 93¢
Current share
14%
Above 1041 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1041
Above 1041.5 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1041P5
Above 1042 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1042
Above 1042.5 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1042P5
Above 1043 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1043
Above 1043.5 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1043P5
Above 1044 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1044
Above 1044.5 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1044P5
Above 1045 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1045
Above 1045.5 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1045P5
Above 1046 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1046
Above 1046.5 Ft
kalshi · KXMEAD-26JUN-A1046P5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.