Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1051.5 feet in May 2026
Leader sits at 93% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1041 Ft
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Above 1041.5 Ft
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jul 3, 2026
36 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 10
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1050 feet in May 2026?: Above 1050 Ft
KXMEAD-26MAY-A1050
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1050.5 feet in May 2026?: Above 1050.5 Ft
KXMEAD-26MAY-A1050P5
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1043.5 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1043.5 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1043P5
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1046.5 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1046.5 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1046P5
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1046 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1046 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1046
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1045.5 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1045.5 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1045P5
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1045 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1045 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1045
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1044.5 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1044.5 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1044P5
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1044 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1044 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1044
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1043 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1043 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1043
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1042.5 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1042.5 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1042P5
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1042 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1042 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1042
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1041.5 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1041.5 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1041P5
Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1041 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1041 Ft
KXMEAD-26JUN-A1041
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Lake Mead's water elevation will exceed 1051.5 feet by May 31, 2026. The current 6% implied probability suggests this threshold is seen as unlikely given historical patterns and recent inflow conditions. Lake Mead's elevation depends primarily on Colorado River water releases, snowmelt timing in the Rocky Mountains, and regional precipitation. The steep probability gradient across the contract range (96% for 1048.5 feet down to 6% for 1051.5 feet) indicates traders view even modest elevation gains above 1049 feet as increasingly unlikely. Resolution occurs on May 31, 2026, when the Bureau of Reclamation publishes the official end-of-month elevation reading. Between now and then, weekly elevation data and upstream dam release decisions will provide incremental information about whether inflows remain sufficient to push the lake higher.
- ›Current Lake Mead elevation as of mid-May 2026 and trend direction over the previous 7-10 days
- ›Projected Colorado River unregulated inflow forecasts through May 31, including snowmelt runoff from upper basin states
- ›Release schedules from Glen Canyon Dam and other upstream facilities, which directly control water entering Lake Mead
- ›Historical comparison: Lake Mead elevation patterns in May across prior years and current water-year precipitation totals versus normal
- ›Weekly Bureau of Reclamation elevation bulletins and any official updates to monthly or annual water-sharing allocation assumptions
What moved the line
- May 25Above 1044.5 Ft↓32pp36→4¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Above 1044.5 Ft↑23pp4→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 27Above 1044.5 Ft↑19pp27→46¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Above 1050 Ft↑15pp69→84¢ · Kalshi
- May 28Above 1050.5 Ft↓14pp39→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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