Will LIV Golf Tournament take place in Virginia before May 11, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will LIV Golf Tournament take place in Virginia before May 11, 2026?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing May 11, 2026. The market has experienced extreme volatility, surging 73 cents over seven days to 84¢, suggesting recent positive news about a Virginia LIV event—likely an official announcement or credible scheduling confirmation.
Analysis
The market has experienced extreme volatility, surging 73 cents over seven days to 84¢, suggesting recent positive news about a Virginia LIV event—likely an official announcement or credible scheduling confirmation. The 505% annualized yield on Yes positions and massive 4546% yield on No reflects the binary nature with only 24 days to resolution, creating cliff risk (index of 3) as the May 11 deadline approaches. Despite modest $5.6k daily volume and $17k open interest, the 8¢ spread and neutral regime indicate the market has largely priced in the event's likelihood, though the realized volatility of 26,108% suggests traders remain uncertain about final confirmation.
Resolution rules
If a LIV Golf Tournament happens in Virginia before May 11, 2026 at 12:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLIVOCCUR-26LIGVA-YES yes 100