Will Mark Smith be the Republican nominee for SC-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will Mark Smith be the Republican nominee for SC-01?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing June 9, 2027. Mark Smith's nomination odds have tightened 4 cents over the past week to 45¢, suggesting consolidation around current fair value despite thin liquidity of just $2,673 open interest and $240 daily volume.
Analysis
Mark Smith's nomination odds have tightened 4 cents over the past week to 45¢, suggesting consolidation around current fair value despite thin liquidity of just $2,673 open interest and $240 daily volume. The 111% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the 55% risk-adjusted yield, indicating the market may be pricing in outsized tail risk or uncertainty around the nomination process. With 419 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position with limited depth rather than a mature price discovery mechanism.
Resolution rules
If Mark Smith wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 SC-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSC01R-26-MSMI yes 100