Will Sam McCown be the Republican nominee for SC-01
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 52% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
52%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$884
2 contracts
Closes
Jun 9, 2027
358 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican nominee for SC-01
Will Jenny Costa Honeycutt be the Republican nominee for SC-01?: Jenny Costa Honeycutt
KXSC01R-26-JHON
Cluster 2
Will Mark Smith be the Republican nominee for SC-01
Will Mark Smith be the Republican nominee for SC-01?: Mark Smith
KXSC01R-26-MSMI
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Sam McCown will secure the Republican nomination for South Carolina's 1st congressional district. At 28%, the market suggests McCown is a moderate contender but faces competition or headwinds within the Republican primary process. The key drivers of this probability are McCown's existing political infrastructure and name recognition in the district, balanced against potential opposition from other candidates with stronger conservative credentials or grassroots support. The outcome will be determined primarily by the South Carolina Republican primary voting results for SC-01, scheduled for March 2026, when voters will directly choose their nominee.
- ›McCown's vote share in any completed primary elections or early polling data within SC-01
- ›Number and strength of competing Republican primary candidates in the district
- ›Campaign funding and expenditure levels compared to other nominees in the race
- ›Regional endorsements from established Republican figures and party leadership in South Carolina
- ›Turnout patterns and voter demographics in SC-01 compared to historical primary participation rates
What moved the line
- Jun 10Mark Smith↓52pp72→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 11Mark Smith↑26pp20→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Jenny Costa Honeycutt↑17pp16→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 11Jenny Costa Honeycutt↑10pp33→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Jenny Costa Honeycutt↑7pp40→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (52% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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