Massoud Rajavi · Iran leader end of 2026
Massoud Rajavi is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside Iran leader end of 2026?.
Price history
1¢ current
−49¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Outcome
Massoud Rajavi
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
Mojtaba Khamenei 70¢
Range
0¢-70¢
Family volume
$9.2M
Identifier
0x17a0a4c8...a185
May 28, 2026, 10:16 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$799
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · Iran leader end of 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$9.2M
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x17a0a4c8…a185
Event family
Iran leader end of 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9.2M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Mojtaba Khamenei 70¢
Current share
2%
Mojtaba Khamenei
polymarket · 0x25fb28382075f418a944a781a9f8840e2f541152eea0d9798d1cabfa1466adbb
Reza Pahlavi
polymarket · 0xe6eb21883f57c3047cf7be1d7cff4554fbb82067e374bd07c53242170f57851f
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
polymarket · 0x0df7e873042bebb09fbe24562069f28670c6b9366cab653fe15e030173cbc18c
No Head of State
polymarket · 0x6397f084bcee3390e92b0a4f8d0f1fa23ddabad1668c4a6783f5643564f646d6
Abbas Araghchi
polymarket · 0x504088e48d1e39815d24709930eda874ad3b69a1ed2b1cd2e3f480981410f71c
Alireza Arafi
polymarket · 0xa1b6ebba4e86fe9bfb2c206dba71be111d2e1047d7b74125eb223c1b3da7ebd6
Hassan Khomeini
polymarket · 0xe19caac25967e1c4b09254ebe6f152dde51fe9468cf1def1deb3c22089083adf
Mohammad Khatami
polymarket · 0x4266ab921148974f104cbadd099e13bca989441bf58acfd2a08fc6cc7440e1a1
Masoud Pezeshkian
polymarket · 0xb10aa376c96281d85f8d93e69107bb37aedb1bc2b953e24718836aee1bb64f3f
Hassan Rouhani
polymarket · 0xa62f1bf829a121000d61acafed2689cdaa1488253e420214112103dcffab2fde
Maryam Rajavi
polymarket · 0x370c146544d0fb7db1d77767473c8a6fbdf08b9914c827712d49449b0eb7f4aa
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
polymarket · 0xb174c3e769e52b51681b154172468f89c685b9fe24c4b0ef3ef5f8c3b511c3a0
Massoud Rajavi
polymarket · 0x17a0a4c8d29c95bf6f3e3576fc603faf29ae681a0924719cf27a89ec46efa185
Ahmad Vahidi
polymarket · 0x9bc5b4e8a866be23195ae675ec7c3ca2e4fece72c80fffe82a7d69726f9dfc61
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
polymarket · 0xae6d228c3a89c04f5d48b130c86416b146ee3fdc19c6f201603d9c9682dca3ea
Sadegh Larijani
polymarket · 0x1c3443745a19b5da3775711dae0bc72056c9a816ccb1c8f6748e304608bd9762
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.