Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

The market has rallied 23% over seven days to 69¢, reflecting increased conviction that Mojtaba Khamenei will assume Iran's top position by year-end 2026, though the extreme 314% implied yield on "No" suggests significant tail risk pricing for succession uncertainty. With $72.4M open interest and only a 1¢ spread, liquidity is solid, but the 149% realized volatility and 1.78 vol ratio indicate this remains a highly uncertain outcome despite the elevated probability. The 259-day timeframe and 1.1 info arrivals per hour suggest material political developments could still shift pricing substantially before resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Trade