Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

The market is pricing Ghalibaf at just 7¢ with an extreme 1,874% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting very low conviction in his path to Iran's head of state by end-2026—likely reflecting that Supreme Leader Khamenei currently holds de facto power with no clear succession timeline. The 7-day price collapse from 10¢ to 7¢ combined with 1,522% realized volatility and a 4.15 vol ratio indicates significant recent selling pressure and high uncertainty, though the $20.9k open interest and modest $1,639 daily volume suggest limited liquidity for a binary event 259 days out. The 13 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution given Iran's political volatility and the resolution's dependence on interpreting "de facto" authority in a complex power structure.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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