Before July 1, 2026 · Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-0
Before July 1, 2026 is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-0.
Price history
20¢ current
+18¢Contract brief
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before July 1, 2026
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Before September 1, 2026 52¢
Range
3¢-52¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
May 27, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-0
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26JUL01
Event family
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-0.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before September 1, 2026 52¢
Current share
39%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.