Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. The market is pricing a coin-flip scenario (54% Yes) for Díaz-Canel's departure, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (245-288%) signal severe illiquidity—with only $174 in 24-hour volume against $18.4k open interest, this is a thin, speculative contract where position sizing matters more than directional conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing a coin-flip scenario (54% Yes) for Díaz-Canel's departure, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (245-288%) signal severe illiquidity—with only $174 in 24-hour volume against $18.4k open interest, this is a thin, speculative contract where position sizing matters more than directional conviction. The 138-day timeframe and neutral regime suggest the market lacks a clear catalyst, though the 162% realized volatility indicates past price swings have been sharp despite minimal recent movement (51¢ to 52¢ over seven days).
Resolution rules
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before September 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDIAZOUT-MDC-26SEP01 yes 100