SimpleFunctions
KalshiJun 1, 202621 days left

Will Miguel Díaz‑Canel visit New York City before Jun 1, 2026?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 7¢ spread.

Implied probability

3¢
$1K volume
$344 liquidity
246% of event volume

Event outcomes

7

Family volume

$466

Best sibling

Donald Trump 10¢

Ticker

KXVISITNYC-26JUN01-MDIANYC

Market snapshot

Miguel Díaz‑Canel in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Miguel Díaz‑Canel visit New York City before Jun 1, 2026?. The displayed quote is 3¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $195. In the KXVISITNYC-26JUN01 family, this outcome ranks #3 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.

Outcome

Miguel Díaz‑Canel

Family rank

#3 of 7

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jun 1, 2026

24h volume

$195

Family context

7 outcomes · KXVISITNYC-26JUN01

Quote range

1¢-11¢

Family leader

Elon Musk 11¢

Last updated

May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 13m ago

Venue identifier: KXVISITNYC-26JUN01-MDIANYC. Family volume: $466.

Price history

3¢ current

+2¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 12, 2026May 11, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 7¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
7¢200
9¢20
50¢300
59¢200
84¢58

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Miguel Díaz‑Canel has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of New York City before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Identifier

KXVISITNYC-26JUN01-MDIANYC

SF Signal
SF Index
28359.85
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXVISITNYC-26JUN01.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$466

Outcomes

7

Highest price

Elon Musk 11¢

Current share

42%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

56719.7%

IY (No)

54.3%

Adj IY

28360%

CRI

32

Overround

-0.7%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

56719.7%
54.3%
Adj IY
28360%
32
Overround
-0.7%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.