Will Mike Perry win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ?
This contract is priced at 29¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 29¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
7
Family volume
$24K
Best sibling
Will Nate Diaz win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Nate Diaz by KO/TKO/DQ 6¢
Ticker
KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-PERKOTKODQ
Market snapshot
Will Mike Perry win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Mike Perry by KO/TKO/DQ in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Mike Perry win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? . The displayed quote is 29¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $1K. In the KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER family, this outcome ranks #2 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 15, 2026, 12:23 AM UTC.
Outcome
Will Mike Perry win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Mike Perry by KO/TKO/DQ
Family rank
#2 of 7
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
29¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until May 30, 2026
24h volume
$1K
Family context
7 outcomes · KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER
Quote range
1¢-34¢
Family leader
Will Mike Perry win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by Decision? : Mike Perry by Decision 34¢
Last updated
May 15, 2026, 12:23 AM UTC · 1m ago
Venue identifier: KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-PERKOTKODQ. Family volume: $24K.
Price history
29¢ current
−17¢Orderbook snapshot
27 / 29¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Mike Perry wins by KO/TKO/DQ during the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight originally scheduled for May 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 30, 2026
Identifier
KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-PERKOTKODQ
Event family
KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$24K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Will Mike Perry win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by Decision? : Mike Perry by Decision 34¢
Current share
4%
Will Mike Perry win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Mike Perry by KO/TKO/DQ
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-PERKOTKODQ
Will Nate Diaz win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Nate Diaz by KO/TKO/DQ
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-DIAKOTKODQ
Will Nate Diaz win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by Submission? : Nate Diaz by Submission
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-DIASUB
Will Nate Diaz win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by Decision? : Nate Diaz by Decision
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-DIADEC
Will the fight between Nate Diaz and Mike Perry end in a draw? : Draw
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-DRAWDRAW
Will Mike Perry win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by Submission? : Mike Perry by Submission
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-PERSUB
Will Mike Perry win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by Decision? : Mike Perry by Decision
kalshi · KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-PERDEC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 29% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.