Will Youssef Zalal win the Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$112K
16 contracts
Closes
May 30, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Khamzat Chimaev win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight
Will Khamzat Chimaev win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight by Submission? : Khamzat Chimaev by Submission
KXUFCMOV-26MAY09CHISTR-CHISUB
Will Khamzat Chimaev win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight by Decision? : Khamzat Chimaev by Decision
KXUFCMOV-26MAY09CHISTR-CHIDEC
Will Khamzat Chimaev win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Khamzat Chimaev by KO/TKO/DQ
KXUFCMOV-26MAY09CHISTR-CHIKOTKODQ
Cluster 2
Will Gina Carano win the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano UFC fight
Will Gina Carano win the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano UFC fight by Decision? : Gina Carano by Decision
KXUFCMOV-26MAY16ROUCAR-CARDEC
Will Gina Carano win the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano UFC fight by Submission? : Gina Carano by Submission
KXUFCMOV-26MAY16ROUCAR-CARSUB
Will Gina Carano win the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Gina Carano by KO/TKO/DQ
KXUFCMOV-26MAY16ROUCAR-CARKOTKODQ
Cluster 3
Will Nate Diaz win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight
Will Nate Diaz win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Nate Diaz by KO/TKO/DQ
KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-DIAKOTKODQ
Will Nate Diaz win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by Submission? : Nate Diaz by Submission
KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-DIASUB
Will Nate Diaz win the Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry UFC fight by Decision? : Nate Diaz by Decision
KXUFCMOV-26MAY16DIAPER-DIADEC
Cluster 4
Will Sean Strickland win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight
Will Sean Strickland win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight by KO/TKO/DQ? : Sean Strickland by KO/TKO/DQ
KXUFCMOV-26MAY09CHISTR-STRKOTKODQ
Will Sean Strickland win the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland UFC fight by Decision? : Sean Strickland by Decision
KXUFCMOV-26MAY09CHISTR-STRDEC
Cluster 5
Will Ronda Rousey win the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano UFC fight
Will Ronda Rousey win the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano UFC fight by Decision? : Ronda Rousey by Decision
KXUFCMOV-26MAY16ROUCAR-ROUDEC
Will Ronda Rousey win the Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano UFC fight by Submission? : Ronda Rousey by Submission
KXUFCMOV-26MAY16ROUCAR-ROUSUB
Cluster 6
will baisangur susurkaev win the baisangur susurkaev vs. djorden santos ufc fight by submission? : baisangur susurkaev by submission
Cluster 7
will tatsuro taira win the joshua van vs. tatsuro taira ufc fight by submission? : tatsuro taira by submission
Cluster 8
will grant dawson win the grant dawson vs. mateusz rebecki ufc fight by ko/tko/dq? : grant dawson by ko/tko/dq
What moved the line
- May 3Gina Carano by KO/TKO/DQ↑26pp2→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Ronda Rousey by Submission↑22pp26→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Ronda Rousey by Submission↑14pp12→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Gina Carano by KO/TKO/DQ↓14pp28→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Ronda Rousey by Submission↓12pp48→36¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.