SimpleFunctions

128 billion · Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by June 30

128 billion is priced at 97¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 95¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by June 30?.

Price history

97¢ current

+6¢
90¢100¢
May 23, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of views by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast).

Outcome

128 billion

Rank

#3 of 4

Leader

126 billion 100¢

Range

90¢-100¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

0x6f51fc8a...6820

May 27, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 3m ago

Implied probability

97¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 3m ago

Bid

95¢

Ask

100¢

Spread

Reported volume

$139

Family rank

#3 of 4

4 outcomes · Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by June 30?

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

95 / 100¢

Polymarket
5¢ spread
BidSize
95¢30
86¢30
68¢40
31¢75
28¢1.5K
21¢1.5K
10¢15K
10¢6
AskSize
100¢253
100¢58
100¢187
100¢10

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of views by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast).

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x6f51fc8a…6820

SF Signal
SF Index
34995.90
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

33.5%

IY (No)

34995.9%

Adj IY

34996%

CRI

32

RV

114%

VR

1.89

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

33.5%
34995.9%
Adj IY
34996%
32
RV
114%
VR
1.89
IAR
0.6/h

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.