Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by June 30?
Leader sits at 97% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
128 billion
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
89¢
129 billion
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$16
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
34 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by June 30
Analysis
This market estimates a 96% probability that MrBeast will reach 129 billion total views on YouTube by June 30, 2026—roughly 37 days from now. The high probability reflects his historical growth trajectory and subscriber base, which have consistently generated substantial view counts. The main factors are his upload frequency, content performance (which determines views per video), and whether YouTube's algorithm amplification continues at recent levels. Any significant slowdown in content release or viewer engagement would lower the probability. The outcome resolves automatically when YouTube's view counter updates, making this a straightforward measurement-based event with no ambiguity about the final result.
- ›MrBeast's average daily view velocity over the past 30 days compared to the 1.44 billion views per day needed to reach 129B by June 30
- ›His upload schedule and typical views-per-video in recent months, accounting for seasonal content performance variations
- ›YouTube's algorithm distribution patterns and whether recent engagement rates represent sustainable baseline performance
- ›Potential external events (platform changes, content issues, or other unpredictable factors) that could disrupt normal viewing patterns within the 37-day window
- ›The gap between 127B and 129B (the leading vs. featured threshold) to assess how tight the clustering of near-term outcomes is
What moved the line
- May 25129 billion↑5pp79→84¢ · Polymarket
- May 26128 billion↑5pp91→96¢ · Polymarket
- May 26129 billion↑3pp84→87¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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