Before 2029 · Will NASA land a person on the Moon b
Before 2029 is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Will NASA land a person on the Moon b.
Price history
25¢ current
−8¢Contract brief
If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2029
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Before 2030 56¢
Range
1¢-56¢
Family volume
$61
Identifier
MOON-28DEC31
Jun 6, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
23¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$77
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Will NASA land a person on the Moon b
Closes
Dec 31, 2028
Family volume
$61
Orderbook snapshot
23 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2028
Identifier
MOON-28DEC31
Event family
Will NASA land a person on the Moon b.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$61
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before 2030 56¢
Current share
64%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.