Before 2030 · Will NASA land a person on the Moon b
Before 2030 is priced at 64¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 59¢ bid, 64¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will NASA land a person on the Moon b.
Price history
64¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2030
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Before 2030 59¢
Range
3¢-59¢
Family volume
$249
Identifier
MOON-29DEC31
May 25, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
59¢
Ask
64¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$2
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will NASA land a person on the Moon b
Closes
Dec 31, 2029
Family volume
$249
Orderbook snapshot
59 / 64¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2029
Identifier
MOON-29DEC31
Event family
Will NASA land a person on the Moon b.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$249
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before 2030 59¢
Current share
1%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.