SimpleFunctions

Netherlands · KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST

Netherlands is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 14¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 10 inside KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST.

Price history

13¢ current

10¢15¢
Jun 7, 2026Jun 7, 2026

Contract brief

If Netherlands records the most goals scored by any team in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Netherlands

Rank

#3 of 10

Leader

Portugal 17¢

Range

5¢-17¢

Family volume

$779

Identifier

KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST-NED

Jun 7, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 10m ago

Implied probability

13¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 7, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 10m ago

Bid

Ask

14¢

Spread

14¢

Reported volume

$520

Family rank

#3 of 10

10 outcomes · KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$779

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 14¢

Kalshi
14¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
14¢312
16¢312
97¢5.0K
98¢300
99¢25

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Netherlands records the most goals scored by any team in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST-NED

SF Signal
SF Index
5374.93
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

10749.9%

IY (No)

240.0%

Adj IY

5375%

CRI

7

Overround

0.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

10749.9%
240.0%
Adj IY
5375%
7
Overround
0.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.