Will New Zealand score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
44h ago
24h volume
$1K
17 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
23 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Argentina score” vs “Will Curacao score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Argentina score
Cluster 2
Will Curacao score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 3
Will Germany score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Germany score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Germany
KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST-GER
Cluster 4
Will Spain score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Spain score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Spain
KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST-ESP
Cluster 5
Will New Zealand score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 6
Will IR Iran score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 7
Will Colombia score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Colombia score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Colombia
KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST-COL
Cluster 8
Will Haiti score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 9
Will Jordan score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Jordan score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Jordan
KXWCGSGOALS-26LEAST-JOR
Cluster 10
Will France score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will France score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: France
KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST-FRA
Cluster 11
Will England score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will England score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: England
KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST-ENG
Cluster 12
Will Cape Verde score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 13
Will Qatar score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Qatar score the fewest goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Qatar
KXWCGSGOALS-26LEAST-QAT
Cluster 14
Will Belgium score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Belgium score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Belgium
KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST-BEL
Cluster 15
Will Brazil score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Brazil score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Brazil
KXWCGSGOALS-26MOST-BRA
Cluster 16
Will Netherlands score the most goals in the group stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Analysis
This contract asks whether New Zealand will score fewer goals than any other team in their World Cup group during the tournament's opening stage. At 13%, the market suggests a low but meaningful probability. New Zealand's offensive capability relative to their group opponents, combined with historical goal-scoring patterns, drives the current odds. The probability will clarify significantly once group assignments are finalized and teams begin their matches in mid-June 2026. Key drivers include New Zealand's squad strength and recent attacking performance compared to group rivals, and whether they face particularly strong defensive opponents that could limit scoring opportunities.
- ›New Zealand's group composition once revealed—playing stronger offensive teams increases the likelihood of fewest goals
- ›Historical World Cup goal-scoring data for New Zealand versus typical group-stage opponents and tournament averages
- ›Comparative offensive firepower and recent goal-scoring records of teams in New Zealand's assigned group
- ›Injury status and availability of New Zealand's key attacking players approaching the tournament
- ›Group stage schedules and opponent quality—fixtures against stronger teams may suppress New Zealand's goal total relative to weaker group members
What moved the line
- Jun 6Haiti↑18pp2→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Curacao↓6pp21→15¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in sports
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 2d
- ATP Tennis Matcheslast 50% · 2d
- WTA Tennis MatchesSemifinal match?: Elina Svitolinalast 50% · 3d
- Which team will replace Iran at FIFA World Cuplast 84% · 7d
- UEFA Champions Leaguelast 50% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.