Will New York City experience population increase between -1.99% and -1% during 2025-2027?

This market prices an extremely narrow population decline band (-1.99% to -1%) at just 7¢, implying NYC has only a 7% chance of experiencing this specific outcome during 2025-2027, yet the Yes position offers an extraordinary 736.7% annualized yield with 776 days to expiry. The zero 24-hour volume and modest $3,720 open interest suggest minimal liquidity, making the 1¢ spread potentially misleading given the thin market depth and high cliff risk index of 16. The asymmetric yield profile (736.7% vs 3.0%) indicates severe mispricing or reflects genuine uncertainty about whether NYC's population will fall outside this narrow band entirely—either experiencing larger declines, stabilization, or growth.

Resolution rules

If New York City experiences a population increase of between -1.99% to -1% between July 1, 2025 and July 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade