Oliver Gilbert · KXFLPRIMARY-24D26
Oliver Gilbert is priced at 18¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 17¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside KXFLPRIMARY-24D26.
Price history
18¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
If Oliver Gilbert wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 FL-24 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Oliver Gilbert
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Shevrin Jones 25¢
Range
6¢-25¢
Family volume
$14K
Identifier
KXFLPRIMARY-24D26-OGIL
May 24, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
17¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · KXFLPRIMARY-24D26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$14K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 24¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Oliver Gilbert wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 FL-24 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXFLPRIMARY-24D26-OGIL
Event family
KXFLPRIMARY-24D26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$14K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Shevrin Jones 25¢
Current share
7%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.