SimpleFunctions

Shevrin Jones · KXFLPRIMARY-24D26

Shevrin Jones is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 41¢ ask, 16¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside KXFLPRIMARY-24D26.

Price history

34¢ current

+29¢
0¢25¢
May 19, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

If Shevrin Jones wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 FL-24 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Shevrin Jones

Rank

#1 of 4

Leader

Shevrin Jones 25¢

Range

6¢-25¢

Family volume

$14K

Identifier

KXFLPRIMARY-24D26-SJON

May 24, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 20m ago

Implied probability

34¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 20m ago

Bid

25¢

Ask

41¢

Spread

16¢

24h volume

$4K

Family rank

#1 of 4

4 outcomes · KXFLPRIMARY-24D26

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Family volume

$14K

Orderbook snapshot

25 / 41¢

Kalshi
16¢ spread
BidSize
25¢9
18¢27
7¢29
6¢46
5¢1.4K
AskSize
41¢5
42¢15
48¢4
50¢12
51¢33

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Shevrin Jones wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 FL-24 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

Identifier

KXFLPRIMARY-24D26-SJON

SF Signal
SF Index
74.62
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXFLPRIMARY-24D26.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$14K

Outcomes

4

Highest price

Shevrin Jones 25¢

Current share

26%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

207.3%

IY (No)

23.0%

Adj IY

75%

CRI

3

RV

8613%

VR

43.60

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

207.3%
23.0%
Adj IY
75%
3
RV
8613%
VR
43.60
IAR
3.6/h
Overround
-0.5%
LAS
0.64

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.