Robert Smullen · KXNYPRIMARY-21R26
Robert Smullen is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside KXNYPRIMARY-21R26.
Price history
15¢ current
−6¢Contract brief
If Robert Smullen wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NY-21 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Robert Smullen
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Anthony Constantino 79¢
Range
15¢-79¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXNYPRIMARY-21R26-RSMU
May 25, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
15¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · KXNYPRIMARY-21R26
Closes
Jun 23, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
15 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Robert Smullen wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 NY-21 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 23, 2027
Identifier
KXNYPRIMARY-21R26-RSMU
Event family
KXNYPRIMARY-21R26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Anthony Constantino 79¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.