SimpleFunctions
PolymarketMay 31, 202622 days left

Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31?

This contract is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 3¢ spread.

Implied probability

5¢
$3K volume
$4K liquidity
100% of event volume

Event outcomes

1

Family volume

$3K

Best sibling

Ticker

0x82b1b23c…5c84

Market snapshot

May 31 in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31?. The displayed quote is 5¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $3K. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC.

Outcome

May 31

Family rank

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until May 31, 2026

Reported volume

$3K

Family context

Standalone contract

Quote range

Family leader

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC · 10m ago

Venue identifier: 0x82b1b23cde12ef055f59302b09422c9d630b1ed46449ab04022f8a8e71425c84. Family volume: $3K.

Price history

5¢ current

45¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 22, 2026May 7, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 6¢

Polymarket
3¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.4K
3¢359
2¢462
AskSize
6¢313
7¢497
10¢20
11¢10
34¢12
35¢14
36¢80
38¢150

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.141847° N, 34.771637° E in Kindrativka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS.png Intersection Location in Kindrativka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS2.png Kindrativka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/KS3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/BTC6vHHmyYcJ1WETA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

May 31, 2026

Identifier

0x82b1b23c…5c84

Event family

Will Russia capture Kindrativka by.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$3K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

May 31 5¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

31970.3%
88.6%
Adj IY
6394%
19
LAS
0.60

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