Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
5%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12
1 contracts
Closes
May 31, 2026
22 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by...?: May 31
0x82b1b2…5c84
Analysis
This market reflects a 7% probability that Russia will capture the town of Kindrativka by a specific deadline (likely June 30, 2026, based on related contract pricing). The low probability suggests market participants believe Russian forces face significant obstacles to capturing this objective within the timeframe. The current level reflects recent frontline dynamics in eastern Ukraine—particularly Russian advancement rates in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Ukrainian defensive capabilities, and available military resources on both sides. The main factors pushing the probability would be accelerated Russian advances or Ukrainian defensive weakening; factors reducing it would include Ukrainian counteroffensives or stabilized front lines. The resolution will depend on actual territorial control verified by geospatial intelligence, military reports, or occupation announcements before the deadline.
- ›Russian ground forces' current advance rate in Donetsk region and whether it sustains or decelerates over the next 1-2 months
- ›Ukrainian defensive positions and reserve forces available to hold or contest territory around Kindrativka
- ›Comparison to pricing on nearby towns (Kostyantynivka at 27% for June 30 suggests market views Kindrativka as harder to reach or lower priority)
- ›Supply of weapons, ammunition, and military aid flowing to Ukrainian forces during the relevant timeframe
- ›Weather and seasonal conditions affecting military operations in May-June 2026
What moved the line
- May 2May 31↓5pp14→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 7May 31↓4pp9→5¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.