Will Russia invade another country in 2026
Will Russia invade another country in 2026 is priced at 11¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 10¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
11¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Will Russia invade another country in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$254K
Identifier
0x8011cff6...8229
Jun 6, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$232
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$254K
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x8011cff6…8229
Event family
Will Russia invade another country in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$254K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Russia invade another country in 2026 11¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.