Will Russia invade another country in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
11%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Russia invade another country in 2026
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
0x8011cf…8229
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Russian military forces will conduct a full-scale invasion of another country between now and December 31, 2026. At 12%, the market reflects relatively low expectations for such an action, though not negligible. The assessment appears driven by Russia's current military posture following its ongoing operations in Ukraine, combined with assessments of economic constraints and international response costs. Factors pushing probability up would include escalated rhetoric, troop mobilizations toward borders, or declared territorial claims. Factors pushing it down would include diplomatic engagement, military resource depletion, or international deterrence mechanisms. Resolution depends on whether military forces cross an international border in a manner meeting invasion criteria, making real-time intelligence and official declarations critical to monitoring this outcome through year-end.
- ›Current Russian military availability and logistical capacity given ongoing Ukraine operations and reported casualty levels
- ›Status of territorial disputes or border tensions with neighboring states (Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Baltic nations)
- ›International deterrence posture, including NATO positioning, military aid commitments, and sanctions frameworks in effect
- ›Official Russian government statements regarding territorial ambitions or military intentions released before year-end
- ›Occurrence of major diplomatic initiatives or peace negotiations that could reduce invasion probabilities versus escalatory events
Recently closed in ukraine
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- Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...last 97% · 8d
- What will United States representative(s) say during Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine - Security Councillast 6% · 9d
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- Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31last 3% · 10d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
Russia Captures Ukrainian Town: War Odds Flip
The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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