Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2831.2% and 7.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2831.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1416%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Sam Bankman-Fried be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?

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