Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
This contract is priced at 9¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
1
Family volume
$2.9M
Best sibling
—
Ticker
0x3b0107a8…606c
Market snapshot
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?. The displayed quote is 9¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $27K. It is currently represented as a standalone prediction-market contract. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.
Outcome
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026
Family rank
—
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
9¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jan 1, 2027
24h volume
$27K
Family context
Standalone contract
Quote range
—
Family leader
—
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 7m ago
Venue identifier: 0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c. Family volume: $2.9M.
Price history
9¢ current
−1¢Orderbook snapshot
9 / 10¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0x3b0107a8…606c
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 6¢, +3¢ versus this page.
Event family
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$2.9M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026 9¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 9% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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