SimpleFunctions

↑ $85 · Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June

↑ $85 is priced at 43¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 31¢ bid, 55¢ ask, 24¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?.

Price history

43¢ current

8¢
50¢75¢100¢
May 12, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.

Outcome

↑ $85

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

↑ $85 43¢

Range

1¢-43¢

Family volume

$3.9M

Identifier

0xebb1ea66...2dff

May 27, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 3m ago

Implied probability

43¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 3m ago

Bid

31¢

Ask

55¢

Spread

24¢

24h volume

$118

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$3.9M

Orderbook snapshot

31 / 55¢

Polymarket
24¢ spread
BidSize
31¢38
30¢66
26¢7
18¢67
17¢100
16¢75
12¢148
10¢731
AskSize
55¢21
57¢6
67¢38
68¢38
69¢39
70¢57
73¢149
75¢2.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0xebb1ea66…2dff

SF Signal
SF Index
1446.32
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$3.9M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↑ $85 43¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↑ $85

polymarket · 0xebb1ea662b616493063f6e4a7beaff2cf35f4b465fbb023a4bb15ded9c012dff

43¢
$3K$118

↓ $65

polymarket · 0xa43ad4037543d8376fe6bc828997820cc197ceb86d8c8f51b33b95c6676078cf

20¢
$207K$703

↓ $60

polymarket · 0x898e9ff5045fcd05c26ea1e956d926c191d5aecae1bc184283c94e665f0f7be5

10¢
$192K$166

↑ $100

polymarket · 0x5d58553c3583b535dfaa93c55de4eaddc37c60487d058430668311733b08ae1c

6¢
$9K$1K

↓ $55

polymarket · 0xf29ba3bae0662b6f977f4918ad07ce6ea1c9d49bbc63a9145a2973cc829d245e

5¢
$151K$00.2

↑ $120

polymarket · 0x1b252df7e5281d8fb86888619f4ee1f5045c9f2aecb857d361819ca6522e4665

2¢
$1.0M$6K

↓ $45

polymarket · 0xe0c4e1990640ac0d2aac60f7711036191897bdeae1a1c90e5f922d0f83a34f94

2¢
$144K$176

↑ $110

polymarket · 0xa2c23fd5bffeed929da54e44ef1775dc9d6772a5e23bc6010b692874a4879ba4

2¢
$4K$835

↑ $200

polymarket · 0x35241fd758ba0da8bc3d7df2706aaf87d8420c5004ae3c4ceaa07b432f955850

1¢
$518K$33

↑ $150

polymarket · 0xbb6db11fa76323814a73cd76cdaa459f502078166bf5810e6de1b013af7334f8

1¢
$403K$15

↑ $250

polymarket · 0x2e034ceb0544227ee4c8a11c650cf7c1bb977e63b73e03992a23e4778686de22

1¢
$290K$109

↑ $210

polymarket · 0x077b60b7261e4a474def4863f80c432368debf93208bf3647b4e21b784e2a4aa

1¢
$258K$16

↑ $130

polymarket · 0x27651d9f3426ef2a4f907aa78f2ed69cdb22f2570d5c05d85f6f998b5b5a4524

1¢
$232K$0

↑ $170

polymarket · 0xa7917e7d6769c541fb3002db0e61c898d4a1fee139f50fbcfdf71fd7b78fcb22

1¢
$196K$30

↓ $35

polymarket · 0x36d8503ac63c0e55c3926fc9a903aee46ad2e1b28532af32f239eeda4aa6dbaa

1¢
$147K$468

↑ $230

polymarket · 0x42906a6d7941e5a8a92cdb9d413a84c198e5fcb110bda21341f1dadaefc78908

1¢
$116K$42

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1446.3%

IY (No)

823.1%

Adj IY

1446%

CRI

1

RV

515%

VR

1.73

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1446.3%
823.1%
Adj IY
1446%
1
RV
515%
VR
1.73
IAR
0.4/h
Overround
2.5%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.