Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?

Silver has experienced a dramatic 36% price collapse over seven days (28¢ to 18¢), suggesting either a sharp reassessment of downside risk or potential market manipulation, though the 18% implied probability still prices in a $55 low as a tail event requiring roughly 18% downside from current levels. The 2248% annualized yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 74-day timeframe, indicating either severe mispricing or extreme cliff risk (score of 5), compounded by realized volatility of 853% that dwarfs typical silver futures moves. With only $566 in 24-hour volume against $6.7M open interest and a taker regime score of 0.636, liquidity is dangerously thin for a market this volatile, raising concerns about the reliability of the 18¢ price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.

Indicators

Regime

Trade