Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. The 33% probability reflects a $60 silver floor that appears moderately unlikely given current market conditions, yet the extreme 1002% implied yield on "Yes" positions suggests significant tail-risk pricing for a move requiring roughly a 25-30% decline from typical current levels over 74 days.
Analysis
The 33% probability reflects a $60 silver floor that appears moderately unlikely given current market conditions, yet the extreme 1002% implied yield on "Yes" positions suggests significant tail-risk pricing for a move requiring roughly a 25-30% decline from typical current levels over 74 days. The thin $668 daily volume and modest $17,280 open interest indicate low liquidity that could amplify price swings, while the elevated 421% realized volatility and 1.31 vol ratio confirm silver's recent turbulence is pricing in substantial uncertainty around this threshold.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
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sf trade 0x898e9ff5045fcd05c26ea1e956d926c191d5aecae1bc184283c94e665f0f7be5 yes 100