South Africa · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A
South Africa is priced at 39¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 38¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A.
Price history
39¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If South Africa is one of the teams to qualify from Group A for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
South Africa
Rank
#4 of 4
Leader
Mexico 87¢
Range
38¢-87¢
Family volume
$150
Identifier
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A-RSA
May 27, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
38¢
Ask
43¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$9K
Family rank
#4 of 4
4 outcomes · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
Family volume
$150
Orderbook snapshot
38 / 43¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If South Africa is one of the teams to qualify from Group A for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
Identifier
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A-RSA
Event family
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$150
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Mexico 87¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 39% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.