SimpleFunctions

Czechia · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A

Czechia is priced at 73¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 68¢ bid, 73¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A.

Price history

73¢ current

+17¢
60¢70¢
Apr 27, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Czechia is one of the teams to qualify from Group A for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Czechia

Rank

#2 of 4

Leader

Mexico 87¢

Range

38¢-87¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A-CZE

May 27, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 13m ago

Implied probability

73¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 13m ago

Bid

68¢

Ask

73¢

Spread

Reported volume

$316

Family rank

#2 of 4

4 outcomes · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

68 / 73¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
68¢6
67¢4.0K
31¢39
12¢4.5K
11¢20
AskSize
73¢5
74¢2.5K
84¢1.3K
85¢100
90¢3

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Czechia is one of the teams to qualify from Group A for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Identifier

KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A-CZE

SF Signal
SF Index
857.56
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

4

Highest price

Mexico 87¢

Current share

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

379.8%

IY (No)

1715.1%

Adj IY

858%

CRI

2

Overround

1.6%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

379.8%
1715.1%
Adj IY
858%
2
Overround
1.6%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.