Will Stuttgart win the DFB Pokal?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will Stuttgart win the DFB Pokal?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing June 6, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity and volatility indicators that render the pricing unreliable: with only $10 open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a 7¢ spread, the 25¢ price likely reflects minimal actual trading rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity and volatility indicators that render the pricing unreliable: with only $10 open interest, zero 24-hour volume, and a 7¢ spread, the 25¢ price likely reflects minimal actual trading rather than genuine probability assessment. The astronomical 3287% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 44,099% realized volatility and a dramatic 7-day price swing from 1¢ to 18¢ suggests this is a thin, speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market. With 51 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 5, traders should exercise extreme caution given the potential for sharp repricing or illiquidity at resolution.
Resolution rules
If Stuttgart is the 2026 DFB Pokal Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDFBPOKAL-26-VFB yes 100