Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026 is priced at 77¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 77¢ bid, 78¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
77¢ current
+21¢Contract brief
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$77K
Identifier
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261201
Jun 17, 2026, 5:52 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
77¢
Ask
78¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$10K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Family volume
$77K
Orderbook snapshot
77 / 78¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before December 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Identifier
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261201
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$77K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026 77¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
Read 77% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.