Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027
Leader sits at 86% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jul 1, 2027
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Before Apr 1, 2027
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$425K
liquid
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
381 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270701
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261201
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261101
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270401
Analysis
This market estimates a 43% chance that ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz will average 60 or more per day over a 7-day period at some point before April 1, 2027. The probability reflects near-term uncertainty about whether transit volumes will reach this threshold soon, given that current weekly data shows mixed signals—some contracts pricing near-term achievement (May–June) at very low odds (5–38%), while longer-dated resolution points suggest modest confidence overall. The main factors are geopolitical tension in the region, which can disrupt shipping patterns, and seasonal shipping demand cycles. Resolution depends entirely on IMF PortWatch data releases, which measure actual daily transits; the next critical observation window is the upcoming weeks in May and June 2026, where contract pricing suggests skepticism about near-term volume spikes.
- ›Current 7-day moving average transit levels relative to 60 calls/day threshold; near-term contracts (May 15, June 1) price at 5–15% suggesting recent data below 60
- ›Geopolitical incidents or sanctions affecting regional shipping routes could abruptly alter transit volumes either upward (rerouting) or downward (disruption)
- ›Seasonal shipping demand patterns and maintenance schedules that influence typical Hormuz transit frequencies throughout the year
- ›IMF PortWatch reporting methodology and data lag; verification depends on actual published figures for consecutive 7-day periods
- ›Regional tensions or military activity that could trigger insurance premium spikes, thereby deterring or redirecting shipping traffic through the Strait
What moved the line
- Jun 12Before Aug 1, 2026↑13pp27→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Before Sep 1, 2026↑13pp35→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Before Oct 1, 2026↑10pp44→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Before Sep 1, 2026↑9pp48→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Before Oct 1, 2026↑9pp54→63¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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