Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?
Leader sits at 86% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Will the 7-day moving averag
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$13.0M
liquid
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
379 days
Cross-venue
K10+P4
55pp gap
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 64¢ · Polymarket 9¢ · 55pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (9¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (64¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 5% of their title tokens — “Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before” vs “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260701
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260801
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260901
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270701
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270401
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 15, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B260715
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261101
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261201
Cluster 2
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?: June 30
0xa976dc…7f53
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?: September 30
0x95fc6a…126b
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?: June 15
0x9b6f9e…61ae
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?: June 22
0xcd2270…bd27
Cluster 3
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
0x1723b7…bd68
What moved the line
- Jun 12Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?↑13pp27→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?↑13pp35→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?↑10pp44→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026?↑9pp48→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?↑9pp54→63¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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