Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?
Leader sits at 86% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Will there be more than 20 t
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$3.5M
liquid
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
327 days
Cross-venue
K15+P7
12pp gap
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 32¢ · Polymarket 20¢ · 12pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (20¢, 7 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (32¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Will there be more than” vs “Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 80 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T80
Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T50
Will there be more than 35 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T35
Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T40
Will there be more than 60 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T60
Will there be more than 75 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T75
Will there be more than 55 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T55
Will there be more than 45 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T45
Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T30
Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T25
Will there be more than 65 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T65
Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T20
Will there be more than 70 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T70
Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T15
Cluster 2
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by
Cluster 3
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3
Cluster 4
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 30 in Aug 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 1Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?↑30pp64→94¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?↑30pp63→93¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?↑29pp63→92¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Will there be more than 35 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?↓28pp85→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?↓27pp93→66¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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