Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?

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41%
20 markets·Kalshi + Polymarket

Kalshi

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68%

8 contracts

Polymarket

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22%

12 contracts

Cross-venue gap46¢

Contracts

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

P$1.5M
26¢

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 1, 2026?: Before May 1, 2026

K$195K
17¢

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026

K$59K
51¢

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026

K$42K
58¢

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?: Netherlands

P$34K
4¢

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?: 80+

P$26K
27¢

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?: 20+

P$26K
79¢

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026

K$19K
68¢

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?: 60+

P$16K
36¢

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?: 40+

P$12K
41¢

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?: France

P$12K
8¢

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?: Italy

P$7K
4¢

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?: Germany

P$5K
4¢

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027

K$4K
94¢

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026

K$4K
78¢

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027

K$2K
88¢

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?: 0-10

P$1K
21¢

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?: Pakistan

P$1K
7¢

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?: United Kingdom

P$1K
10¢

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027

K$263
92¢

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