Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?
Leader sits at 86% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Will there be more than 15 t
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$11.0M
liquid
Closes
Jul 1, 2027
281 days
Cross-venue
K15+P15
3pp gap
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 40¢ · Polymarket 37¢ · 3pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (37¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (40¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 6% of their title tokens — “Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before” vs “Will there be more than”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261001
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270101
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270701
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261101
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B261201
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B270401
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2028?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B280101
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2029?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B290101
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2028?
KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17-B280701
Cluster 2
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP27-T15
Will there be more than 10 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP27-T10
Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP27-T30
Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026?
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP27-T20
Cluster 3
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?: September 26
0xf6f19f…29ef
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?: September 29
0xf0a3a1…e8fa
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?: September 21
0x40cebd…d530
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?: September 22
0xac16e1…131a
Cluster 4
Will Trump rename the Strait of Hormuz
Cluster 5
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
0x28dc48…324c
Recently closed in iran
- Will July 10 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (7/6 - 7/12)last 11% · 35d
- Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Jul 13, 2026 to Jul 19, 2026last 86% · 40d
- Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" before May 1, 2026last 5% · 55d
- Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for June 2026 be at least 2.4M bpdlast 90% · 72d
- Syria vs Iran Winnerlast 78% · 79d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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